Guizhou Provincial Research Institute of Mine Safety and Science Guizhou Provincial Research Center of Mine Gas Prevention Engineering and Technology Guizhou Provincial Research Insttute of Coal Mine Design

为了验证贵州煤矿区目前所采用的局部突出危险性各预测预报指标的敏感性,在对区内典型突出矿井调研基础上,利用三率法和指标与突出危险性相关性分析2种方法,对贵州突出矿区预测预报指标的敏感性进行了研究。结果表明:贵州煤矿区目前所采用的预测预报指标中,以钻屑瓦斯解吸指标最为敏感,钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度次之,钻屑量和钻屑温差敏感性最差。钻屑瓦斯解吸指标中,安顺、黔西南和六盘水地区K1整体情况更为敏感,毕节和遵义地区Δh2相对更为敏感。由于钻屑瓦斯解吸指标不能反映地应力因素,钻屑量敏感性差,建议贵州煤矿区采用钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度,配合钻屑瓦斯解吸指标进行局部突出危险性预测预报。

In order to investigate the sensitivity of the local outburst prediction and forecast index applied in Guizhou,based on the investigation of the typical outburst mine witin the mining are.the three ratio method and the ouburst danger relevant analysis method were appied to the study on the sen stity of the predition and forecast index for the outburst mining area in Guzhou.The results showed that in the indexes applied to the predicion and forecast in Guizhouthe drling cutings gas desoption idex was the most sen stive,the intra elocity of the borehole gas emnission was the second and theadrling cutings cuanity and the cutings temperturediference senstit was poo.n the cutings gas desoption index,K1 were completed more senstive in Anshun,Southwest Guizhou and Liupanshui Area andh2indexin Bijie and Zunyi Areas were more sensitive.Due to the gas desorption index of the trll cutings could not refiect the geostress facor and the sensitvity of the drling .uttngs was poor:the paper proposed that the intral velocity of the boreholegas emiss ion and the driing cutings gas desorption index would be appid to predict and forecast the local outburst danger in Guizhou.

“十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAK04B07)；贵州省社会发展攻关计划资助项目(黔科合社G字[2011]4003)；