Xi'an Research Institute Co. , Ltd. , China Coal Technology & Engineering Group Corp. , Ltd.

对我国现有的煤与瓦斯突出区域预测方法进行了归纳总结,重点介绍了指标法、地质方法、物探法和数学物理方法,简要分析了各类方法存在的主要问题,并对突出区域预测的发展趋势进行了展望。指出我国煤与瓦斯突出区域预测的发展趋势是:不断完善现有突出区域预测方法,提高各类方法在不同地质条件下的适应性和有效性;加强瓦斯突出基础理论研究,充分利用各种现代理论与技术手段,全面考虑地应力、瓦斯和煤体性质等决定突出危险性的基本因素,构建基于多因素分析的综合突出区域预测方法体系;积极探索和研究深部矿井突出灾害演化规律和控制因素,提出适用于深部煤炭开采的突出区域预测方法。

The paper summarized the existing regional prediction methods of coal and gas outburst in China coal mines, emphatically introduced the index method, geology method, geophysical prospecting method and mathematical physics method, briefly analyzed the main existing problems for all kinds of methods, forecasted th e development trend about regional prediction of outburst. The author pointed out that the progress trend of regional prediction about coal and gas outburst in our count y were: constantly improved the existing methods of gas outburst regional prediction, improved the adaptability and effectiveness in different geological conditions; stre ngthened research on basic theory of gas outburst, made full use of various modern theory and technology, comprehensive consider the basic factors of ground stress, gas and coal properties that determined the danger of gas outburst, building- up comprehensive methodology system of outburst based on multiple factor analysis; activ ely explored and researched on disaster evaluation and controlling factors of outburst in deep mines put forward the methods of regional prediction for the outburst whic h applied to coal mining in deep mine.

国家科技重大专项资助项目(2011ZX05040-003)；中国煤炭科工集团西安研究院有限公司科技创新基金资助项目(2014MS008)；