为提高概率积分法对采动地表下沉值的预计精度,将赫尔默特方差估计法用于概率积分法参数的求取。将监测点的下沉值分为盆地中央和盆地边缘2类,确定2类值的初始权重,求取预平差和参数初值,再根据预计下沉值的改正数估计2类下沉值的验前方差,以该方差再次定权,重新求取概率积分法参数。结合淮北某矿区的观测站资料,编写基于赫尔默特方差估计法的求参程序,与最小二乘法拟合求参法相比,监测点的下沉值预计中误差降低了21.4%,该方法能提高预计下沉值精度。

In order to improve the predicted accuracy of the sinking value with the probability integral method, the Helmert variance estimation method was applied to calculate the pre-estimated parameters of the probability integral method.The sinking value of the monitoring and measuring point could be divided to two types of ba sin central and basin boundary and the initial weighting of the two type values were determined.Then the initial value calculation of the pre-average deviation and the p arameter could be conducted.According to the correction cofficient of the pre-sinking value, the variance of the two type sinking values before the verification was esti mated.The re-weighting of the variance was applied to recalculate the parameters of the probability integral method.In combination with the information of the observati on station in a mine of Huaibei Mining Area, a parameter calculation program was written based on the Helmert variance estimation method.In comparison with the fttin g parameter calculation method of the least square method, the error in the pre-estimation of the sinking value at the monitoring and measuring point was reduced by 2 1.4% and improved the pre-accuracy.

国家自然科学基金资助项目(50834004)；江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(SZBF2011-6-B35)；