为更加科学地解决煤层底板突水预测评价难题，首先系统全面地查阅、比较了以往底板突水危险性评价理论与方法，并深入细致地分析了目前最为先进的基于局部变权理论的底板突水脆弱性评价方法，结果认为该方法在局部状态变权函数的构建、变权区间及调权参数的确定中依据不够充分，存在一定改进的空间；为此，基于现有理论与认识构建出了新型的三区间局部状态变权函数，将常权权重与常权相关系数加入到状态变权函数中，给出了基于主控因素归一值累积频率的变权区间阈值确定新方法，并采用在初步给定经验值的基础上根据评价结果不断调整确定调权参数最终取值的方法；其次，利用新型的三区间变权模型及其参数确定方法对研究区底板奥灰突水脆弱性进行了评价，圈定了相对脆弱区；最后，分析了改进后的变权模型的权重调整规律，并通过灵敏度分析的方法确定了常权相关系数的限定条件，结果表明，加入常权权重与常权相关系数的新型三区间变权模型不仅体现了现有变权模型权重随因素状态值及其组合状态的变化而改变的核心特征，还能够实现权重调整程度与常权权重呈正相关关系，说明本次对变权脆弱性评价模型的改进是科学的、可行的，研究成果对提升底板突水预测评价方法的科学性与实用性具有重要意义。

In order to more scientifically solve the difficult problem of coal seam floor water inrush prediction and evaluation, first of all, a systematic and comprehensive review and comparison of the previous floor water inrush risk evaluation theories and methods, and in-depth and detailed analysis of the most advanced theory based on local variable weight According to the method of evaluating the water inrush vulnerability of the floor, it is considered that the method is not sufficient in the construction of the local state variable weight function, the variable weight interval and the determination of the weight adjustment parameters, and there is room for improvement. For this reason, a new three-interval local state variable weight function is constructed based on the existing theory and knowledge. The constant weight and the correlation coefficient of the constant weight are added to the state variable weight function, and the normalized value accumulation based on the main control factor is given. The new method for determining the threshold of the frequency variable weight interval is adopted, and the method of continuously adjusting and determining the final value of the weighting parameter based on the preliminary given empirical value is adopted according to the evaluation result. After that, a new three-interval variable weight model and its parameter determination method were used to evaluate the water inrush vulnerability of the Ordovician limestone floor in the study area, and the relatively vulnerable area was delineated. Finally, the weight adjustment law of the improved variable weight model is analyzed, and the limiting conditions of the constant weight correlation coefficient are determined through the sensitivity analysis method. It is found that a new three interval variable weight model with constant weight and constant weight correlation coefficient is added It not only reflects the core feature that the weight of the existing variable weight model changes with the change of the state value of the factor and its combination state, but also realizes the positive correlation between the degree of weight adjustment and the constant weight, which illustrates the impact of the variable weight vulnerability evaluation model this time. The improvement is scientific and feasible, and the research results are of great significance for improving the scientificity and practicability of the floor water inrush prediction and evaluation method.