为了研究覆岩导水裂隙带发育高度动态演化规律，以小保当矿区2⁻²煤层为研究对象，通过理论分析、相似模拟实验及实例验证的方法，对导水裂隙带动态发育高度进行研究；借助概率积分法预计其上部岩层移动变形的理论公式，给出了1种基于覆岩曲率变形的导水裂隙带动态发育高度预计方法。研究表明：导水裂隙带上部岩层下沉系数是1个与挠度及下部自由空间高度相关的分段函数，上部岩层曲率变形大小是决定导水裂隙带发育高度的关键因素；导水裂隙带发育高度与工作面推进长度相关；理论预计小保当矿区2⁻²煤层导水裂隙带发育高度为160.8 m，相似模拟实验发育高度为155 m，现场实测发育高度为152.01~175.57 m。

In order to study the dynamic evolution law of the development height of overburden water conducting fractured zone, taking 2⁻² coal seam in Xiaobaodang Mining Area as the research object, the dynamic development height of water conducting fractured zone was studied by theoretical analysis, similar simulation experiment and case verification; a prediction method of dynamic development height of water-flowing fractured zone based on curvature deformation of overburden strata is proposed by using the theoretical formula of predicting the movement and deformation of upper strata with probability integral method. The research shows that the subsidence coefficient of the upper strata of the water-conducting fractured zone is a piecewise function related to the deflection and the height of the lower free space. The curvature deformation of the upper strata is the key factor to determine the development height of the water-conducting fractured zone. The development height of water-flowing fractured zone is related to the advance length of working face; the theoretical prediction of the development height of the water conducting fractured zone in 2⁻² coal seam of Xiaobaodang Mining Area is 160.8 m, the development height of the similar simulation experiment is 155 m, and the development height of the field measurement is 152.01-175.57 m.