为了预计煤层开采引发的地表移动变形，基于极坐标系的概率积分法，借助C#语言和ArcGIS Engine组件工具库设计开发了矿区开采沉陷预计系统。开采沉陷预计系统适用于不规则形状的开采工作面，能够对开采区域地表各点不同开采时间后的下沉、水平移动、水平变形、倾斜、曲率进行预计，并对预计结果进行后处理，绘制地表移动变形云图。以陕西省某矿308工作面开采为例，根据工作面的开采条件、地层岩性等特征选取概率积分参数并代入本系统进行地表移动变形预计，将结果与实测地表移动变形进行对比分析。结果表明：使用该系统预计的地表下沉值与实测下沉值的相对误差小于10%，且下沉盆地形态与实际基本吻合，该系统的预计结果较为可靠，对矿区的开采沉陷预计具有一定的适用性。

In order to predict the surface movement and deformation caused by coal seam mining, a mining subsidence estimation system is designed and developed with the help of C# language and ArcGIS Engine component tool library based on the probability integration method of polar coordinate system. The system is applicable to irregularly shaped mining workings, and is capable of predicting the subsidence, horizontal movement, horizontal deformation, tilt and curvature of various points on the surface of the mining area after different mining times, and post-process the prediction results to draw the surface movement and deformation cloud map. Taking 308 working face mining of a mine in Shaanxi Province as an example, the probability integral parameters are selected according to the mining conditions and formation lithology of the working face and are substituted into the system to predict the surface movement and deformation, and the results are compared with the measured surface movement and deformation. The results show that the relative error between the predicted surface subsidence value and the measured subsidence value is less than 10%, and the subsidence basin shape is basically consistent with the reality. The predicted result of the system is relatively reliable, and has certain applicability to the mining subsidence prediction.