School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University)

积极应对气候变化,推动绿色低碳发展,已成为全球性议题,其焦点之一是如何控制和减少二氧化碳排放。作为二氧化碳主要排放源之一,煤电的低碳转型受到高度关注。碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)是减少煤电碳排放的重要手段,已在全球范围内得到研究与推广,然而其大规模部署仍面临着技术成熟度、成本、收益等方面的挑战。由于电力结构、资源禀赋等条件存在差异,我国不同区域的CCUS部署路径存在较大差异。为促进CCUS在不同区域间协同部署,以煤电行业为研究对象,构建了基于系统动力学的区域煤电CCUS部署模型,从全国与区域层面分析了CCUS部署路径和收益模式,为煤电CCUS的合理发展提出了针对性建议。研究结果表明:① 我国的CCUS部署路径可以按照煤电CCUS改造比例划分为试验与示范项目阶段、蓬勃发展阶段与技术成熟阶段3个不同阶段;② 随着CCUS相关技术的普及,煤电行业的碳排放量可减少原有水平的95.77%;③ 由于不同地区资源禀赋不同,CCUS部署将改变全国范围的碳流布局,华东、南方为净碳流出区域,西北、东北为净碳流入区域,华北、华中则为碳平衡区域,碳流入流出处于相对平衡的状态。

Addressing climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development have become global concerns, with a key focus on controlling and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. As one of the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, coal-fired power generation has garnered significant attention due to its low-carbon transition potential. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power and has been researched and promoted globally. However, the large-scale deployment of CCUS still faces challenges related to technological maturity, cost, and benefits. Given the variations in power structures and resource endowments, there are substantial differences in the deployment pathways of CCUS across different regions in China. To facilitate the coordinated deployment of CCUS across regions, this paper focuses on the coal-fired power industry and constructs a regional coal-fired power CCUS deployment model based on system dynamics. The study analyzes the deployment pathways and revenue models at both the national and regional levels, and offers targeted suggestions for the rational development of CCUS in the coal-fired power sector. The research findings indicate that:① The deployment pathway of CCUS in China can be divided into three distinct stages: the experimental and demonstration project stage, the booming development stage, and the technology maturity stage, based on the proportion of coal-fired power CCUS retrofitting.② With the widespread adoption of CCUS technologies, carbon emissions from the coal-fired power industry can be reduced by 95.77% of the original levels. ③ Due to the varying resource endowments across regions, the deployment of CCUS will alter the national carbon flow layout, with the East and South becoming net carbon outflow regions, the Northwest and Northeast becoming net carbon inflow regions, and the North and Central regions achieving carbon balance, where carbon inflow and outflow are in a relatively equilibrium state.

国家电网有限公司科技资助项目(52018F240002);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72403087,72173043)

张健, 赵云鹏, 王耀, 袁家海. 区域视角下我国煤电CCUS部署路径研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2025, 45(1): 84-94

ZHANG Jian, ZHAO Yunpeng, WANG Yao, YUAN Jiahai. Research on the deployment path of coal-fired power CCUS in China from a regional perspective. Coal Economic Research. 2025, 45(1): 84-94