园区级综合能源系统,凭借其清洁性、高效性以及广泛的可推广性,被视为应对能源与环境危机的有效方案。然而,在构建园区级综合能源系统时,面对多元化的评估标准,决策者往往难以抉择出最优建设方案。鉴于此,本文将物元可拓模型引入园区级综合能源系统规划决策中,提出了基于物元可拓模型的园区级综合能源系统多准则规划决策框架。首先,从园区级综合能源系统的核心属性和构成元素出发,构建了涵盖经济、环境、能源效率、安全性及智能化水平等多维度的综合性能评价指标体系。随后,结合模糊层次分析法与熵权法确定了各评价指标的主观与客观权重,并应用线性加权法计算得出综合权重,以保证评价体系的全面性与客观性。第三,利用物元可拓模型对各个备选方案的综合性能进行了分析与排序,量化了各方案的优劣程度。为验证所提框架的有效性,本文选取了中国江苏省某产业园区作为实际案例进行研究。研究结果表明该模型在园区级综合能源系统规划决策中展现了优越性和稳健性。

With rapid economic and population growth, energy shortages and pollution have become global issues. Building an efficient, low-carbon, and economical energy system and achieving energy transformation has become a consensus among countries around the world. Integrated energy systems are considered one of the important ways to address the aforementioned issues. The park level integrated energy system includes industrial park integrated energy system, community integrated energy system, village integrated energy system, etc., and is currently the most widely used. It is also considered as the specific physical carrier of the energy Internet. In addition, the construction plan of the park level integrated energy system directly affects its operational effectiveness. The existing research on park level integrated energy systems mainly focuses on planning and configuration, operation optimization, energy scheduling, and there is no unified standard and decision-making framework for investment and evaluation. How to achieve accurate investment and decision-making in park level integrated energy systems is currently one of the urgent problems that need to be solved. In view of this, this article introduces the matter element extension model into the planning and decision-making of park level integrated energy systems, and proposes a multi criteria planning and decision-making framework for park level integrated energy systems based on the matter element extension model. Firstly, starting from the basic attributes and composition of the park level integrated energy system, the characteristics of the park level integrated energy system were analyzed, and the composition of the evaluation index system was sorted out. And based on this, establish an integrated performance evaluation system that includes criteria such as economy, environment, energy, security, and intelligence. In the indicator system, indicators such as intelligence rate, unit energy input, unit energy consumption emissions, and comprehensive energy efficiency have been introduced. Secondly, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the indicators, and the linear weighting method is used to determine the comprehensive weights. Thirdly, the matter element extension model was introduced into investment decision-making, and a framework for enterprise investment decision-making based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight-matter element extension model was established. Finally, a certain industrial park in Jiangsu Province, China was selected as an example for verification. The research conclusion is as follows: (1) In the indicator system, the comprehensive weight of environmental performance is the highest (0.2581). The comprehensive weights of the value layer, system layer, and device layer are 0.4576, 0.2926, and 0.2498, respectively. (2) The evaluation results indicate that using photovoltaics, wind power generation, heat pumps, and energy storage can often achieve good overall performance. (3) Through sensitivity analysis of the case, it was found that changes in the subjective and objective weight coefficients and changes in indicator weights within 20% do not have an impact on the decision results, while changes in levels have a significant impact on the decision results.