针对新时期下我国煤炭资源安全稳定供给难题，系统分析了煤炭资源存在的开发供给不均衡、需求变化不确定等矛盾，剖析了提升煤炭高质量稳定供给能力存在的主要问题，提出了煤炭智能柔性开发供给技术体系与建设思路。系统分析了煤炭智能柔性开发供给体系的技术内涵与特征，提出了综合考虑煤矿生产能力柔性系数与煤炭运销能力柔性系数的煤炭开发供给柔性度的概念，采用运筹学等方法建立了煤炭智能柔性开发供给响应模型，基于物联网、区块链等技术建设全国煤炭供需监测预警平台（中心），采用分布式技术对煤炭全产业链数据进行监测分析，预测煤炭开发供给柔性度，确定由煤矿、运销中心和消费区组成的供应链最优供给方案。分析了构建煤炭智能柔性开发供给体系的核心要素，研究了基于全国煤炭供需监测预警平台（中心）的煤炭智能柔性开发供给支撑技术体系，主要包括生产端支撑技术、运输端支撑技术、消费端支撑技术与基础平台支撑技术，提出了煤炭智能柔性开发供给运行模式。

Aiming at the problem of safe and stable supply of coal in China, this paper systematically analyzes the contradiction of unbalanced development and supply of coal resources and the uncertainty of demand change, analyzes the main problems existing in improving the ability of high-quality and stable supply of coal, and puts forward the technical system and construction idea of smart flexible coal development-supply. The technical connotation and characteristics of intelligent flexible coal development-supply system are systematically analyzed, and the concept of flexible coal development and supply is put forward, which comprehensively considers the flexible coefficient of coal production capacity and the flexible coefficient of coal transportation and marketing capacity. The response model of smart flexible coal development and supply is established by operational research methods. The national coal supply and demand monitoring and early warning platform/center should be built based on the Internet of Things, block chain and other technologies, and distributed technology is used to monitor and analyze the data of the whole coal industry chain, predict the flexibility of coal development and supply, and determine the optimal supply plan of the supply chain composed of coal mines, transportation and distribution centers and consumption areas.This paper analyzes the core elements of building a supply system for the smart flexible coal development-supply, coal supply and demand is studied based on the national monitoring and early warning platform/center of coal supply support intelligent flexible development technology system, mainly including production side supporting technology, transportation and supporting technology, the consumption end support and foundation platform support technology,smart flexible coal development-supply operation mode is proposed.

0 引言

1 煤炭高质量稳定供给需求分析

   1.1 煤炭高质量稳定供给现状与挑战

   1.2 煤炭高质量稳定供给需求与趋势

2 煤炭智能柔性开发供给响应模型

   2.1 煤炭智能柔性开发供给体系内涵与特征

   2.2 煤炭开发供给柔性度

   2.3 煤炭智能柔性开发供给响应模型

3 煤炭智能柔性开发供给技术体系

   3.1 煤炭智能柔性开发供给体系核心要素

   3.2 煤炭智能柔性开发供给支撑技术

4 煤炭智能柔性开发供给运行模式

5 结论